I think that this one has been under-reported somewhat but since I work in the online gaming industry, it showed up on my radar. This SPAC has reached a deal to bring back Paysafe to the market, at a valuation of 9 billions. What is Paysafe? Paysafe Group has been consolidating the market for e-wallets and alternative payment methods for years and went back into private hands 3 years ago. They regroup all the main e-wallets used for online gambling and Forex: Skrill and Neteller and also prepaid cards (to be bought in 7/11 and the like) under the Paysafe brand. Why e-wallets matter in the online gambling market? E-wallets and prepaid cards represent about 25% of the volume of payments in online gambling in UK, Europe, Canada and Skrill/NetellePaysafe are by far the biggest names in this field. https://www.fisglobal.com/-/media/fisglobal/WorldPay/Docs/Miscellaneous/Gaming%20Payments%20Report%202019 Neteller and Moneybookers (as Skrill was known then) were dominating the US alternative payment methods gambling market in the US before they got pushed out in 2007. They still have high name recognition amongst the gambling crowd and web searches in the US for these brands remain high, even if they can’t process much transactions there for gambling since many states don’t have online gambling legislations yet, or very limiting ones. E-Wallets are often the preferred payment method for gamblers since it allows to move money from one operator site to the other quickly and cheaply. They can also use it as a bankroll segregated from their main bank account/CC and on top of that, Paysafe offers loyalty benefits to users based on their transaction volumes. As such, their user retention is very good. The prepaid card business is also a major factor for this stock attractiveness. Prepaid cards to be bought in gas stations or the like are often preferred by gamblers who want to strictly control their gambling or those who don’t have access to a CC (maybe because they gambled too much) or those that prefer cash transactions out of privacy concerns… Why not invest in the gambling operators instead? Operators such as Draftkings or legacy casino groups are going to make money but the regulatory environment is harsh and gambling taxes are crazy in some states and might keep going higher. Moreover, the regulations being so fragmented, many smaller operators push in certain states and not others and the competitive environment is broad. Remember that gambling is a fungible good. There is no difference in the casino games that the operators can offer (same game studios, same rules) and aside from bonuses and the margins on sports bets, the only differentiation is in branding, which is a thin moat on a product that often leaves the users disgruntled (losers). Payments on the other hand are not taxed for their relationship to gambling and there are far fewer players. How does Paysafe make money? The margins on their products are pretty high and Paysafe charges both sides of the transaction in the case of the e-wallets and the merchant side in the case of the prepaid cards. For the use of Skrill and Neteller wallets, Paysafe charges on average 4.5% on the merchant side for deposits and a whooping 9.9% on deposits with prepaid cards… Larger merchants certainly can negotiate these rates down but this is still a healthy fee, much higher than credit card processors. In markets where Paysafe has established domination they charge a small deposit fee to the user and a withdrawal fee. For now, they charge no fees to the US users in a bid to grow market share surely but that will probably end some day. Growth opportunity: For now, the US online gambling market is still very limited. Most states have not legalized, the majority of those who have legalized only did so for sports betting and then a handful have legalized online casino gaming (where the real money is made). The opening up of the market is bound to grow as states need money and more of the world moves online. https://www.playusa.com/us/ It is estimated that the online gaming market could reach 25 billions a year in the US in a few years time and 150 billions worldwide. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market#:~:text=The%20North%20America%20online%20gambling,CAGR%20during%20the%20forecast%20period. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-online-gambling-market These revenues do not equal to deposited amounts, they equal net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals). The hold % of online casinos can be anywhere between 50% and 80% depending on how degenerate the market is in a given country but we can conservatively assume 60%. This means that deposits volume in the US alone would reach about 40 billions, Europe about 50 Billions and worldwide 250 billions. That should give Paysafe around 8-10 billions in transaction volume per year in the US alone , another 10-12 billions in Europe and conservatively, another 20 billions worldwide. Valuation estimates: Rough estimates are therefore revenues of about 1.5 billions per year for Paysafe group in a few years for gambling alone. Paysafe claims 1.5 billions in revenues total projected for 2021, with only a third from gambling. Even assuming no growth from the other verticals, this means that the total revenues of Paysafe should grow by 66% with gambling alone in the next 5 years or so. Pysafe is investing a lot into expansion in other areas than gambling, notably video-gaming and remittance so assuming they don’t fuck it up completely, we are likely to see a 3 billions dollar in revenues in the next 5 years. Using Paypal’s marketcap vs revenues, that would mean 50 billions in marketcap for Paysafe… Of course, Paypal is ingrained deeply in the whole of ecommerce and Paysafe is more specialized in gambling which might be shakier and herefore command a lower valuation. The deal details are not fully known but it looks like a current valuation of 9 billions for Paysafe Group upon listing. Based on my estimates, the marketcap could reach 50 billions in a few years time, one US market for gambling fully opens. $BFT is trading at a 25% premium right now, therefore the estimate is 4x on investment over a few years. Obviously you retards are not the most patient bunch but I believe the stock will jump when it morphs and so keep an eye out for the options.
Ultimate Casino Cashback Guide - Earn over £500 - Every Offer Explained!
This guide aims to outline all of the best gambling cashback offers available over a range of sites, following this guide you should be able to make over £500 in cashback Note - Cashback often takes a while to payout, bear this in mind when completing offers as you may have to wait to cashout your earnings When completing these offers don't chase any loses as the cashback will give you a profit with nerly every offer A short review of each site and some referral links Topcashback - Cashback will show as tracked within a few days, can take a few weeks to become payable, in some cases even longer, asides from gambling they have great offers for car insurance and mobile phone contracts, worth taking a look to save some extra money! Ref - Extra £5 when you make £10 cashback Non-Ref - No reward Quidco - Much the same as Topcashback Ref Non-Ref Minimum payment - £10 Ohmydosh - Faster Payouts but less offers Ref - Extra £1 Non-Ref - No reward Minimum payout - Any Cashback Earners - A lesser known site in need of a fresh look, this site also has some bad reviews, referal income is paid to the site on a monthly basis with the dates for each site being different, offers don't seem to show as tracked until the website receive their payment, cashback should appear in your account within 1 month of completing an offer. Cashout amounts are specific, its best to build up a balance and then withdraw. Payment takes around 3 weeks. Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5 Non-Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5 Minimum payout is £20 Payment Proof - Payments for all sites can be seen here, quidco isn't shown as i have signed up for all the casinos on offer through topcashback
How to Maximize Profit - IMPORTANT - READ THIS
For the majority of these offers you want to play blackjack following the chart found here Any blackjack game will do, look for a normal version of the game at the site you are playing on and make sure it is a non live game as the hand sizes will be lower. When playing blackjack there will often be more than one spot that you can bet on, allowing the player to bet more than one hand at a time, Its important to only bet on one spot at a time as it reduces the variance of the game and will ensure you get the maximum return possible from the game, stick to £1 hand sizes when playing and dont be tempted to bet larger amounts as you will be getting a nice amount of cashback from every offer Through playing blackjack this way the player will get a return of around 98%, meaning for every £100 staked you will lose around £2. If you make a loss on a casino site after completing the required wagering amount, withdraw your remaining balance, don't chase loses as the cashback will make up for loses and give you a profit in most cases. All offers are updated fairly regularly, make sure to check the terms for each offer as information in this post may become outdated. Also check for other offers every now and then as new casinos are added!
TopCashBack Offers - £400+ Profit
Topcashback Referral - Get an extra £5 - See the Ref Link at the top of the page! If you dont already have an account at top cashback, you can sign up through my referral to get an extra £5 added to you account once you make £10 cashback Lottoland - Cashback £15 Add £11 and play 11 separate £1 hands, following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Betfair Casino - Cashback £70 Note this is not the poker offer Add £50 to your account and play 50 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Quidco are offering £100 for this offer Party Casino - Cashback £26.5 Deposit and play 30 single £1 hand son blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Tombola - Cashback £24.5 Deposit £10 and open the tombola roulette game, choose a £1 chip size and choose 5 spots, repeat this twice, withdraw any remaining balance, you will likely lose money here but the cashback will give you a profit Coral - Cashback £46 Add £10 and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Bingoport - Cashback £3 Sign up to bingoport to get an easy £3 Ladbrokes - Cashback £42 Add £10 to your account and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Pokerstars - Cashback £32 Add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. STS - Cashback £21 Add £30 to your account and play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. William Hill - Cashback £54 add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Megacasino - £15.75 Add £25 - Play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. LottoGo - Cashback £3.18 Buy a euromillions ticket Slingo - Cashback £24.75 Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. PaddyPower Games - Cashback £20 Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. The Football Pools - Cashback £24.75 Sign up for the £10 a month subscription, cancel this after 30 days Lottomart - Cashback £18 Add £10 - Play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Genting Slots - Cashback £25 Add £30 play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. OhMyDosh - Cashback £40+ Referral gives an extra £1, sign up through the ref link at the top of the post to get the bonus! Gala Bingo - Cashback £17.50 Deposit at least £5, you'll get a £10 slots bonus and 100 free spins, these carry hefty wagering requirements, Open any slot and play the minimum spin size, play until you lose all of the money in your account or complete the wagering requirements on the bonus funds. Withdraw any remaining balance. BGO - £10 Cashback Deposit at least £15. Play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. DONT ACCEPT the welcome bonus from BGO. Lottosocial - Cashback £4 Sign up to Lotto Social - Use your correct phone number when joining as it is the only way to login to your account. Purchase 10 lines for £1, after making a purchase go to your account page and find the list of syndicates your are in, leave the syndicates to avoid making any more payments. Cheeky Bingo - £10 Cashback Deposit £10 and get a £40 welcome bonus, just play bingo with all of your funds and hope to get some wins, bonus has 4x wagering requirements.
Quidco - Cashback £100+
Quidco don't offer a sign up bonus, find my ref link at the top of the post if you want to help me out! All of the offers on quidco are much the same as topcashback, the only offer worth noting is the betfair casino offer which pays £100 Betfair - £100 cashback Add £100 and play 100 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Cashbackearners - Cashback £180+
Sign up Bonus Get a £6.5 sign up bonus, think this works with or without the ref link, links are at the top of the post! To find these offers just search for casino on the site. All of these offers state that you only need to make a deposit, its best to play through the deposit 1x to ensure that the cashback is paid. LuckyMeSlots - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Spin Genie - Cashback £12.5 Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Cashmo - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. Ice36 -Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Spinhill Casino - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Galacasino - Cashback £30 add £30 and play 30 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Casino765 - Cashback £12.5 Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Casinosuperwins - Not recommended, bad site, awful support Casino2020 - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play through £15 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. Pocketwin - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. The Sun Vegas - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. DrSlot - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. MrSpin - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. PrimeCasino - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. ConquestAdor - Cashback £10 Add £10 play 10 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. MFortune - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. Thanks for reading, hope this of use to some people, happy earning!
Up to £219.11 profit in cashback through gambling offers with TopCashback, Quidco and OhMyDosh
Up to £219.11 profit in cashback through gambling offers with TopCashback, Quidco and OhMyDosh TopCashback, Quidco and OhMyDosh always have a number of gambling offers available, with the offered amounts often changing daily or weekly. There are currently quite a few offers available on each where the cashback amount is more than the required deposit or wager amount. I've done most of these and always keep an eye out for when the amounts increase, to make sure I can get the most for my money. The offers they have on at the moment are some of the best I've ever seen for them. The first step is to sign up for the cashback sites if you haven't already. If you use a referral link to sign up then you can get an extra bonus once your cashback becomes payable:
Then the next step is to work through the offers. These are all only available for new customers, so if you already have an account with one of the sites then you won't be eligible for the offer from them unfortunately. It's also worth checking the terms as some have specific wagering requirements, for example Betfair Casino must be completed within 3 days of opening your account and low risk roulette bets (covering 25 or more of the 37 outcomes) are excluded from counting towards the wager. Offers
Notes If you complete all these offers then you should make £207.11 cashback in profit through the offers alone. If you are new to the cashback sites and sign up through referral links then this will be £219.11 instead. There's also a chance you can make a profit on any or all the offers and walk away with even more. There's also a final few key points:
Make sure you have all adblockers and tracking protection switched off as otherwise this may lead to issues with the cashback tracking correctly.
I've listed the highest paying in terms of deposit/wager to cashback offers here, but if you have a preference for one cashback site over the other then they often offer very similar amounts if you'd rather go with the other instead.
Similarly, some sites (OhMyDosh in particular) offer a lower cashback amount but also a lower deposit/wager amount, which may be more appealing to some.
Some of the offers may require a premium subscription to receive the mentioned amount. I wrote a guide to maximising cashback that explains these.
I don't like to say the cashback is guaranteed as all the cashback sites say it never is, but I've never had an issue with any of these sites, whether through gambling or other offers.
Please be aware that these all these offers all are gambling, so I'd highly recommend depositing and wagering only the mimimum amount required to get the cashback, then withdrawing any profit you may have made.
Up to £244.55 profit in cashback through gambling offers with TopCashback, Quidco and OhMyDosh
Up to £244.55 profit in cashback through gambling offers with TopCashback, Quidco and OhMyDosh TopCashback, Quidco and OhMyDosh always have a number of gambling offers available, with the offered amounts often changing daily or weekly. There are currently quite a few offers available on each where the cashback amount is more than the required deposit or wager amount. I've done most of these and always keep an eye out for when the amounts increase, to make sure I can get the most for my money. The offers they have on today are some of the best I've ever seen for each of them. The first step is to sign up for the cashback sites if you haven't already. If you use a referral link to sign up then you can get an extra bonus once your cashback becomes payable:
Then the next step is to work through the offers. These are all only available for new customers, so if you already have an account with one of the sites then you won't be eligible for the offer from them unfortunately. It's also worth checking the terms as some have specific wagering requirements, for example Betfair Poker must be completed within 3 days of opening your account and low risk roulette bets (covering 25 or more of the 37 outcomes) are excluded from counting towards the wager. Offers
Notes If you complete all these offers then you should make £232.55 cashback in profit through the offers alone. If you are new to the cashback sites and sign up through referral links then this will be £244.55 instead. There's also a chance you can make a profit on any or all the offers and walk away with even more. There's also a final few key points:
Make sure you have all adblockers and tracking protection switched off as otherwise this may lead to issues with the cashback tracking correctly.
I've listed the highest paying in terms of deposit/wager to cashback offers here, but if you have a preference for one cashback site over the other then they often offer very similar amounts if you'd rather go with the other instead.
Similarly, some sites (OhMyDosh in particular) offer a lower cashback amount but also a lower deposit/wager amount, which may be more appealing to some.
I don't like to say the cashback is guaranteed as all the cashback sites say it never is, but I've never had an issue with any of these sites, whether through gambling or other offers.
Please be aware that these all these offers all are gambling, so I'd highly recommend depositing and wagering only the mimimum amount required to get the cashback, then withdrawing any profit you may have made.
Hi guys, I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it matters
Position sizing
Kelly
Using stops sensibly
Picking a clear level
Why it matters
The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.” You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizing
The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose. Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
Kelly Criterion
If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.
How to use stop losses sensibly
Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear level
Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part II
EDIT: part II here Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns
Coming up in part III
Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Several different online casinos offer £20 free no deposit casino UK. Additionally, some of these casinos also offer other deals like complimentary free spins, etc. If you are playing at the best table or slot game, this bonus can be really helpful, especially if you do not want to risk real money. Why Is £20 Free No Deposit So Useful? 20 Free Spins with no deposit requirement Get 20 bonus spins in Book of Dead. No deposit required. No deposit bonus spins expires 7 days after sign up. Wagering requirement 30x on bonus spins and 60x on 1st dep bonus. 18+ only. Gambleaware.co.uk. Terms & conditions apply. Sign up Get 20 bonus spins, no deposit required. New players only • No Deposit Offer: Claim in 48 hrs • 14 day expiry • Free Spins (FS) wins credited as bonus & capped at £15, exc. JP win • Deposit Bonus Offer: £20 min deposit with code • Valid for selected games only • Bonus wins capped at £500 • 30x wagering - req. vary by game - in 90 days • UK only - deposit balance is available for withdrawal at any time List of UK No Deposit Bonuses and Free Spins in February 2021. Our list of UK No Deposit Casinos is designed to offer you the very best offers available within your jurisdiction. Use the filter provided to alter the type of offers you receive, based on your own preferences. When signing up for a no-deposit casino bonus through the New Online Casinos 2021 list above you will get a free new no deposit bonus. Since you get a bonus for free, there are consequently some higher wagering requirements, usually between 20-100 times the bonus value. £20 Free No Deposit Casino Bonus UK. Introducing the creme de la creme of UK No Deposit Bonuses – The £20 Sign Up Bonus.. We are constantly combing the world wide web’s top casinos to find these rare and wonderful offers because they allow players to wager on casino games for free with £20 without having to deposit a penny.. These outstanding offers are usually available on popular No Deposit Bonuses UK – Top 20 List! We’ve sifted through each and every casino offer out there in the world wide web to find the top 20 no deposit bonuses available to you right now! It’s important to note that no deposit bonuses can come in the form of free spins and varying cash amounts. 1 Online Slots UK has just opened up with No Deposit Casino Bonus for new account holders. Sign-up and start playing with 10 Free Spins No Deposit on Burning Wins. With a name like Online Slots UK, you can bank on finding all of your favourites. 50 Free Spins Casinos UK! We’ve got every UK No Deposit Casino offering 50 Free Spins to new UK casino players. Play at the best sites with 50 spins on us. Explore every Casino with 50 Free Spins, No Deposit and On Deposit. We’ve listed every 50 Spins Bonus Casino this 2020 so you can enjoy 50 Free Spins with the biggest and best brands.
top 10 most dangerous airports in the world 2019 including their dangerous runwaysMany pilots believe that the most dangerous stages during the flight - are... ----------------------------Telegram channel ---------------------https://t.me/easyFX4u---------------------------------------------------------------------... Everyone wants to get the most out of their casinos, regardless of what kind of bankroll you’re working with. To help you get a bargain before you even lay d... Do you ever want to know some casino secrets to help you beat the house when gambling, well this video is for you. From blackjack tips to poker strategy, her... This video is brought to you by Blumhouses’s Fantasy Island. Own the never-before-seen UNRATED version NOW on Digital here https://wmojo.com/OwnFantasyIsland... Get your no deposit casino bonus codes, ... Top 25 Punches That Will Never Be Forgotten ... 20. John Schroter Recommended for you. 10:20. High Stakes Sunday Slots with The Bandit ... However, a few casinos will offer additional no deposit bonuses before you even make your first deposit. These no deposit bonuses usually come in the form of small amounts of bonus cash, but they ... king jackpot uk offers £20 free no deposit bonus plus 300% welcome bonus up to £60 free with a first deposit. http://www.perfectbingosites.co.uk/king-jackpot... o No deposit bingo bonus from UK o List of no deposit bingo slots and sites of ... Top 5 No Deposit Casinos - Duration: ... The first 20 hours -- how to learn anything ... We searched the internet and found for you some top online cash / product deals. ... Play Online Mobile Casino with No Deposit & Win Bonus, UK ... 20:59. Marissa Romero 502,896 views.
